Brown et al. (2006) gave us a good example of how scientific expectations, both hype and dissapointment, have shaped the history of scientific development in the case of Hematopoietic Stem Cell (HSC), which was stated as one of the most valuable stem cell in bioeconomy. I think, in 2006, Brown et al. addreses the change of interest from HSC towards human Embryonic Stem Cell (hESC) which promises a lot of things. From the history of HSC, we can understand that a there were a lot of expectation when a new information/technology was founded (even though it is still poorly understood), but dissapointment came when the expectation was not met, Of course, there were a lot of political and economical background in the announcement of new technologies. The same goes with Nordman & Rip (2009) on the ethical aspect of nanotechnology, where more pressing development receive less attention with the more “hype-ning” futuristic issues. Thus, the history (both hype and dissapointment) might shape future decision or trends of the emerging field.
Danielli’s prediction of the future biology is quite fascinating, and accurate. Interestingly, this perspective on the future seems to be responded differently in comparison when the human genome project was announced. A perspective which at the time seems futuristic has been responded with so much hype when the human genome was announced. But, what was achieved in 2000 was a beginning of the genomic era, yet overly hyped by the press release authors. It is good to bear in mind that the claims and hopes stated in the press release might take longer to became reality.
It is not easy to make balanced expectation to certain technological advances due to personal bias. But as Nordman & Rip (2009) proposes, a more interdisciplinary discussion and “reality check” might help us to get balanced expectation. Predicting the future is of course an important issue for both policymakers and business, but will “promissory capitalization” or “biovalue” shaped our scientific discovery trends in the future? Would it limit our creativity to explore? So how should we think and chose to innovate in the future? In this case, I would like to quote Joi Ito’s (2012) idea on compass over maps:
“The idea is that in a world of massive complexity, speed, and diversity, the cost of mapping and planning details often exceeds the cost of just doing something–and the maps are often wrong”
References
Ito, J. 2012. Compasses Over Maps. MIT Media Lab Blog. Available from: http://blog.media.mit.edu/2012/07/compasses-over-maps.html
0 comments :
Post a Comment